Graphic for MPD #0204

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0204
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
756 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHWEST TX...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 102355Z - 110315Z

SUMMARY...SOME REPEATING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
RESULT IN AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...LATE-DAY EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 VIS IMAGERY SHOWS
MULTIPLE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST
TX AND INTO SOUTHWEST OK. THE ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED MAINLY JUST TO
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR CHILDRESS
TX AND THEN UP ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST
THROUGH CENTRAL OK. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
POOL ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND INTO THE VICINITY OF THE
ONGOING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE MEAN LAYER FLOW IS
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT THE LOW
LEVEL S/SE FLOW INTO AND OVER THE CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED COLD
POOLS IS FOSTERING AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR BACKBUILDING
CONVECTION AND ULTIMATELY REPEATING CELLS.

EXPECT SUFFICIENT REPEATING CONVECTIVE CELL ACTIVITY FOR SOME
FLASH FLOODING TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO REGENERATE OVER AREAS OF SOUTHWEST OK IN
PARTICULAR AND THEN ADVANCE DOWNSTREAM TOWARD CENTRAL OK. RAINFALL
RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH STORM TOTALS
LOCALLY UP TO 4 INCHES OR MORE THROUGH 03Z. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   36099757 35409693 34639748 33889906 34009995
            34370015 35019984 35649885


Last Updated: 756 PM EDT WED MAY 10 2017