Graphic for MPD #0212

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0212
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1001 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN KY...NORTHERN TN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 120155Z - 120530Z

SUMMARY...BAND OF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH
FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
THAT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRAINING IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION ALONG
WITH SOME BACKBUILDING OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. UPSTREAM
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TRANSPORT ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL TN CONTINUES
AS A BROAD AND WELL-ESTABLISHED WARM ADVECTION PATTERN PERSISTS
ACROSS THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEY REGION OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SOME WEST TO EAST TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TN AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING FARTHER WEST AND CONNECTING UP WITH THE MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ENTERING WESTERN TN AND SOUTHWEST KY.
RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2 INCHES/HR IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
CELLS...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37028802 36958702 36728518 36508425 36098410
            35818443 35688543 35778757 35978879 36528922
            36948888


Last Updated: 1001 PM EDT THU MAY 11 2017