Graphic for MPD #0220
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0220
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
627 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL KS...OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 162226Z - 170230Z

SUMMARY...STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CELL
MOTIONS THAT MAY PROMOTE TRAINING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...WHILE SEVERE WEATHER IS CLEARLY A DOMINANT CONCERNS
(REFER TO RECENT MCDS FROM SPC) RECENT RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS
DENOTE AN INCREASINGLY LINEAR ORIENTATION AS SUPERCELLS BEGIN TO
EXPAND/MERGE ACROSS SW KS WITH ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT IN
THE OK PANHANDLE.  RECENT 21-22Z SFC MESO-ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES
WEAK WESTWARD BUCKLE IN THE DRY LINE WITH SOME INCREASED BACKING
LOW LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY ORTHOGONAL TO THE EXPANDING LINE FURTHER
SUPPORTING STRONG INFLOW AND MST FLUX OF MID-60S F TDS AND 850MB
TDS IN THE LOW 60S F.  ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER IS ADVECTING IN WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY 7H FLOW THAT
CONTINUES THROUGH DEPTH TO 3H WITH FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL STEERING
FLOW PARALLEL TO ORIENTATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. 
ADDITIONALLY...WV LOOP SHOWS NOSE OF UL JET PRESSING THROUGH THE
TX PANHANDLE WITH RIGHT EXIT ASCENT DYNAMICS OVER SW KS WITH
EXPECTATION FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO MAINTAIN
THIS GROWING COMPLEX THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH RAIN RATES
UP TO 1.5-1.75"/HR ARE POSSIBLE WITH TOTALS OF 2-4"
PSBL...PARTICULARLY FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINE GIVEN LONGER
TRAINING DURATION...SUPPORTED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS.  

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...ICT...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39479759 38889753 37909850 37010008 36860090
            38149997 39219857


Last Updated: 627 PM EDT TUE MAY 16 2017