Graphic for MPD #0223

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0223
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1234 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NE INTO WRN IA AND SRN MN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 170431Z - 170900Z

SUMMARY...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NERN NE INTO IA AND SRN MN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS WITH
ELEMENTS OF TRAINING. 2-4 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE ON A LOCAL
BASIS THROUGH 10Z.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY AT 04Z IDENTIFIED TWO CLUSTERS OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE FIRST OVER W-CNTRL NE WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THOMAS
AND BLAINE COUNTIES WITH KLNX ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES OF 2-3
IN/HR. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION WAS OVER THE MID-MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY INTO CNTRL IA AT THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL
JET/MOISTURE AXIS STREAMING NWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS. THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE ACROSS N-CNTRL NE HAS COME DOWN TO
ROUGHLY 500 J/KG AND THIS IS CONFIRMED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON
EXPERIMENTAL GOES 16 10.3 MICRON IMAGERY ALONG WITH A REDUCTION IN
TOTAL LIGHTNING DENSITY. WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC LIFT IN
PLACE...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL REMAIN ACROSS N-CNTRL NE DESPITE
WANING INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE OVER
THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO IA/SRN MN WHERE A BROAD REGION OF
UPPER LEVEL ASCENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BETWEEN TWO UPPER LEVEL
JET MAXIMA ALONG WITH STRONGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW. SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.50+ INCHES. MEAN LAYER SSWLY FLOW OF
ROUGHLY 50 KTS WILL PROMOTE TRAINING CORES OF HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES
IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH LAY SOUTHWEST FROM
SRN MN INTO S-CNTRL NE AT 04Z. WITH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE OF
ROUGHLY 2+ INCHES IN 3 HOURS ACROSS THE REGION...FLASH FLOODING
WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 09Z.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   43889474 43719380 42629357 41429373 40869463
            40639595 40819638 41319669 41819756 41619903
            41570024 41750060 42210062 42540034 42829954
            43029802 43599655


Last Updated: 1234 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2017