Graphic for MPD #0224

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0224
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
519 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N-CNTRL KS INTO S-CNTRL NE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 170914Z - 171500Z

SUMMARY...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 1-1.5
IN/HR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 12Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN KS
INTO S-CNTRL NE. GIVEN WET ANTECEDENT GROUND AND LOW FFG...FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...09Z GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED
CLOSED LOW OVER EXTREME SWRN KS...MOVING NEWD ALONG WITH THE
700-850 MB REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE. BLENDED TPW AND RAP MODEL
ANALYSES SHOWED A SOME 1+ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WRAPPING
AROUND THIS CIRCULATION TO THE WEST ACROSS NRN KS. RECENT SPC
MESOANALYSES SHOWED 500-1000+ J/KG MU CAPE REMAINED WHERE RECENT
SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED OVER SMITH AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES. GOES WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A MID-UPPER LEVEL JET
STREAK OVER NWRN TX INTO WRN OK AT 09Z.

AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE NEWD INTO KS EARLY THIS
MORNING...A COMBINATION OF LINGERING INSTABILITY OF 500-1000+
J/KG...INCREASING UPPER DIFFLUENCE/DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK AND A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD
FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL CORES WITHIN
THIS DEFORMATION AXIS SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING AND CAPABLE OF
RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 1.5 IN/HR. GIVEN RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY 1 TO 2
INCHES IN 1 HOUR AND 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS. GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED SLOW MOVEMENT...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES
APPEAR LIKELY WHICH MAY CAUSE A FEW RUNOFF ISSUES ACROSS THE
REGION.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41479801 40339777 39169920 38530046 38670142
            39660134 40430085 41369936


Last Updated: 519 AM EDT WED MAY 17 2017