Graphic for MPD #0228
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0228
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
641 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS...NORTHWEST OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 182240Z - 190245Z

SUMMARY...SHORT-TERM TRAINING ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND POTENTIAL
FOR UPSTREAM REPEAT STORM TRACKS MAY POSE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND GOES-16 MESO VIS/EIR IMAGERY DENOTE
AN EXPANDING/COOLING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ALONG W-E STATIONARY FRONT
FROM RUSH TO SALINE COUNTIES WITH NUMEROUS OVERSHOOTING TOPS TO
-70C FEEDING OFF EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPES SOUTH
OF THE FRONT OVER 3000 J/KG.  THIS IS FED BY NEARLY ORTHOGONAL
SOUTHERLY INFLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER OF 20KTS AT THE SFC TO
35KTS WITH TDS IN THE MID-60S MAINTAINING THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES
FOR CONVECTION TO GROW IN THE NEAR TERM.  CURRENTLY STORMS IN
SEVERE MODE WITH HAIL/DRY AIR PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...THOUGH
PERSISTENCE OF THIS FLUX SHOULD HELP TO MOISTEN THE PROFILES WHILE
MODERATE RAINFALL UP TO 1.25"/HR ARE POSSIBLE.  GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY RECENT RADAR SCANS AND LIGHTNING TRENDS
SUGGEST DEEPER ROOTING TO THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT ROTATION TO
SUPPORT A RIGHT TURN TO THE CELLS ALIGNING FOR SOME POTENTIAL
TRAINING IN THE SHORT TERM. 

ADDITIONALLY...WV LOOP DENOTES VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE OVER NE NM
ENTERING SW KS/W OK PANHANDLE.  THIS  SUPPORTS RAPID SURFACE
DEEPENING AND STRONG ISALLOBARIC FLOW THAT ALONG WITH
STRENGTHENING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE UPSTREAM SHOULD SPARK
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG THE DRY LINE.  THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY
LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TOTALS IN THE 2-3" RANGE
NEARING FFG VALUES IN THE REGION...THOUGH AN ISOLATED SPOT OF 4"+
MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

WITH THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE SHORTWAVE...THE EXPANDING
MCS/CONVECTIVE CELLS WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND TRANSLATE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG I-70 TOWARD NE KS.  ADDITIONALLY WITH
GROWING COLD POOL/COOL CONVEYOR BELT INFLUENCE...THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND INCREASE THE DISTANCE OF
OVER-RUNNING FROM THE WARM SECTOR SOURCE/INCREASING LLJ AFTER
00Z...PERHAPS IN FAVOR OF AN ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE LINE WITH
BETTER TRAINING PROFILE AFTER 00Z ACROSS CENTRAL/S CENTRAL KS AS
SUGGESTED BY RECENT HRRR RUNS AND THE 18Z NAM-CONEST...WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
 
GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...OUN...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39529663 39479576 38759550 38249612 37899669
            37249771 36219918 36999957 37699949 38009971
            38649957 39039885 39349766


Last Updated: 641 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017