Graphic for MPD #0268
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0268
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1239 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IND...NORTHERN KY...SOUTHWEST OH

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 241640Z - 242000Z

SUMMARY...NEARLY STATIONARY CONVECTION WITH REDEVELOPMENT MAY
SUPPORT ISOLATED TOTALS IN THE 2-3" RANGE AND LOCALIZED FF
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AND GOES-16 VIS LOOP INDICATES
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER E IND HAS REACHED A HEALTHY BALANCE OF
INFLOW/CONVECTIVE STRENGTH AND CELL MOTIONS TO ALLOW FOR A NARROW
BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR SO.  RAP ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A MODEST POOL OF INSTABILITY
WITH MUCAPES TO 1000 J/KG WITH MODEST MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION SUPPORTING RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5"/HR.  INFLOW IS FAIRLY
MODEST WITH 5-10 KTS OF EASTERLY 850MB WINDS AND WITH CELL MOTIONS
ABOUT EQUAL BUT TOWARD THE NNW...UPSTREAM REDEVELOPMENT FROM THE
LOW LEVEL INFLOW SUPPORTS EFFECTIVELY STATIONARY PROPAGATION. 

SHORTWAVE WITHIN DEEP UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NNE PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT DPVA AND FURTHER DIVERGENCE IN THE 4-250MB REGION TO
SUPPORT UL EVACUATION TO MAINTAIN BROAD SCALE UVVS TOO LIKELY
EXPANDING THE THREAT FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD CVG (WHERE FFG VALUES
ARE LOWER).  AN ADDITIONAL HOUR OR SO OF STATIONARY MOTIONS SHOULD
PERSIST BEFORE LOW LEVEL INFLOW INCREASES FROM THE EAST TO
15-20KTS (85H) AROUND 19Z...THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FORWARD (EASTWARD)
PROPAGATION AND LIMIT FLASH FLOODING CONCERN THOUGH BROAD
DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE PROVIDING MORE MILD
SHOWERS/RAINFALL THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   40878560 40868484 40358462 39568440 38748427
            38628483 39388599 40308611


Last Updated: 1239 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017