Graphic for MPD #0270

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0270
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
406 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IN...CENTRAL KY...FAR WESTERN OH

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 242005Z - 250005Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING AHEAD OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHERN KY COULD TRAIN OVER AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER
TODAY...RESULTING IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

DISCUSSION...WV LOOP SHOWED A DEEP CLOSED MID LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHERN KY AT 1915Z. THE FLOW AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW IS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN
IN/WESTERN OH AND NORTHERN KY...PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE BEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED LOW (AND ITS
MARGINAL INSTABILITY... WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 500 J/KG) WAS
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KY. THE KLVX RADAR SHOWED HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES NEAR 2.00 INCHES OVER HART AND LARUE COUNTIES IN KY.
THE CELLS HAVE BEEN VERY EFFICIENT IN THIS AIRMASS...WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR 1.25 INCHES.

THE CONVECTION IS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CLOSED MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION...AND IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
KY INTO WESTERN OH AND EASTERN IN...ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST
AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. THE 18Z HRRR HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT CONVECTION...AND THAT SOLUTION PRODUCES A SWATH OF 1.50 TO
2.25 INCHES OF RAINFALL STRETCHING FROM FAR SOUTHWEST OH INTO
EASTERN IN THROUGH 23Z. BASED ON WHAT HAS OCCURRED WITH THE
CONVECTION IN KY THUS FAR...THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM PLAUSIBLE.

RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY PRODUCE LOCAL 3.00+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
(RADAR BASED) OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN IN...AND THE ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. AFTER 00Z...THE
REMAINING INSTABILITY SHOULD BE CONSUMED...LESSENING THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...IWX...JKL...LMK...

ATTN...RFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41348534 41338488 41038415 40248379 37988383
            37368435 37358517 38088545 40148609 40988604
           


Last Updated: 406 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017