Graphic for MPD #0292
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0292
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO...SOUTHWEST NEB...EXT NORTHWEST KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 022200Z - 030300Z

SUMMARY...SLOW CELL MOTIONS WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MST AVAILABILITY
MAY POSE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH EVENING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 EXPERIMENTAL WV CHANNELS DENOTE COMPLEX
MID-LEVEL INTERACTION OF SHORTWAVE ENERGIES WITHIN AN ELONGATED
TROF ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.  A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING SE
OUT OF S WY PROVIDES A TIGHTENING OF TROF OVERALL WHILE PROVIDING
MODEST DPVA AS WELL AS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTH FROM
30KTS TO 50KTS THAT IS MILDLY DIFFLUENT AS WELL OVER WESTERN NEB
PANHANDLE CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE SCALE ASCENT.  AT THE LOWER
LEVELS...EAST OF THE TROF FLOW IS SLIGHTLY BACKING AND INCREASING
WITH 850MB AT 25KTS ACROSS SW KS AND E CO...PROVIDING SOLID MST
FLUX STEADILY INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE FROM 1.1 TO 1.3" TPW TOWARD
00Z.  CURRENTLY VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RADAR COMPOSITE DENOTE
MULTIPLE SSW TO NNE BANDS ACTIVATING WITH THE WESTERN LINE A BIT
MORE ENHANCED AT THIS TIME GIVEN STRONGER SURFACE NWLY FLOW. 
CLOUD BEARING FLOW DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE ELONGATED UPPER
TROF ARE NEAR ZERO AND AS SUCH CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE
LIKELY MERGING WITH CONVECTION TO THE EAST.

AFTER ALL PARAMETERS ARE ACCOUNTED FOR... THERE IS NOT A STRONG
SUGGESTION FOR  EXTREME RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH GIVEN SLOW
MOTIONS/MERGERS A COMPOUNDING OVER A FEW HOURS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS PARTICULARLY TOWARD 00Z AS ENVIRONMENTAL
MOISTURE AND WIND FLOW PARAMETERS MAXIMIZE.  HI-RES CAMS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS IDEA HOURLY TOTALS UP TO 1.5" AND OVERALL
TOTALS OF 1.5-2.5" PARTICULARLY RECENT HRRR AND ESRL HRRR V.3 RUNS
AS WELL AS THE 18Z NAM-CONEST. FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS MORE
LIKELY GREATER NORTH OF I-70 WHERE RECENT RAINFALL OVER THE LAST
FEW WEEKS HAVE WETTED SURFACE CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY MAKING THEM
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41310221 40680154 39160184 38200265 37840402
            38430445 40050375 41250319


Last Updated: 600 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2017