Graphic for MPD #0294

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0294
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 PM EDT SAT JUN 03 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL LA/SOUTHWESTERN MS...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 031912Z - 032242Z

SUMMARY...DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AWAY FROM
THE LA COAST WITH THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE. GIVEN IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE IN PLACE COUPLED WITH SLOW
CELL MOTIONS...AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITHIN THE MORE
MATURE CONVECTIVE BURSTS.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN MS. CELLS ARE
STILL BECOMING MORE VERTICALLY DEVELOPED AS THEY SPAWN WITHIN A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE 12Z LIX
SOUNDING SAMPLED THIS AIR MASS QUITE WELL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AROUND 2.20 INCHES. THIS GENERALLY LIES NEAR THE DAILY
MOVING MAXIMA ON THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. LOW-LEVEL
WINDS HAVE NOT CHANGED A WHOLE LOT AS VAD-WIND PROFILER DATA SHOWS
10 TO 15 KNOTS OF SOUTHERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE GROWING COMPLEX.
SUCH INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OR EVEN STRENGTHEN TO PERHAPS
25 KNOTS BY THE EARLY EVENING WHICH SUGGESTS THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ORGANIZED...LIKELY IN A WEST-EAST FASHION.
TRAINING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN WEAK CELL MOTIONS TOWARD THE EAST.

THERE IS A FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE HIGH-RESOLUTION QPF SIGNAL FROM
18Z-00Z ACROSS THE MPD AREA. THIS AXIS IS SUPPORTED BY MANY OF
THESE MODELS INCLUDING THE 12Z HRW-ARW/NMM-B...NSSL-WRF...NAM
CONUS NEST...AS WELL AS THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE CORES
AS WELL AS WHERE TRAINING TAKES SHAPE.

RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   31879032 31738905 30878868 30678949 30469076
            30319156 30209225 30549284 31129272 31659162
           


Last Updated: 313 PM EDT SAT JUN 03 2017