Graphic for MPD #0301
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0301
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
824 PM EDT MON JUN 05 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NC

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 060023Z - 060323Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION MAY POSE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS

DISCUSSION...GOES-16 VIS/IR CONTINUES TO SHOW COOLING/EXPANDING
CONVECTION ALONG A SLOWLY SOUTH DRIFTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. 
FURTHER UPSTREAM A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE/ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS
RALEIGH-DURHAM CORRIDOR WHILE HELPING TO FLATTEN STEERING FLOW TO
SUPPORT TRAINING OF CONVECTION.  UNSEASONABLY DEEP MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY HAS SATURATED THE ENTIRE COLUMN ORIGINATING FROM
THREE STREAMS...LOWER LEVEL INFLOW EAST OF SEA BREEZE FROM SELY
FLOW...NEAR BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF (SSWLY) AND CIRA
LAYERED TPW SHOWING 700-300 TPW TRACING FROM EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC AND FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE BEATRIZ.  THIS HAS LEAD TO
HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY ACROSS THE EASTERN PIEDMONT (FROM VA TO
SC) THROUGHOUT THE DAY GENERALLY HIGHER THAN EVEN LOCAL RADARS ARE
ESTIMATING IN THE 2.5-3"/HR RANGE.  AS SUCH EVEN WITH THE HIGHER
FFG VALUES IN THE REGION...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" IN QUITE SHORT
TERM PERIOD ARE POSSIBLE SUPPORTING FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36287605 35747570 35377596 35077666 35047786
            35227898 35947894 36147791


Last Updated: 824 PM EDT MON JUN 05 2017