Graphic for MPD #0321

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0321
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
948 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 140147Z - 140530Z

SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS A
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHES A REGION OF LOWER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL CONTINUED TO DEVELOP IN A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW
PATTERN.  AS THE STORMS MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER A REGION OF PERSISTENT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TRANSPORT AS H85 WINDS ACCELERATE INTO THE 40 TO 50
KT RANGE OVER CENTRAL MN BY 03Z.  WINDS IN THIS LAYER WILL BE
TAPPING AN AIRMASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES AS SHOWN BY THE 00Z SOUNDINGS.

THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH POINT TO 3 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE 2 TO
3 INCH RANGE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN ND AND A SMALL PORTION OF
NORTHWEST MN.  AS THE STORMS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE DEEPER FETCH
OF MOISTURE...THEY WILL BE MOVING OVER AREAS WHERE 3 HOUR FFG ARE
BETWEEN 1.0 AND 1.5 INCHES DUE TO AREAS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ON MONDAY NIGHT.

THIS SETS UP THE POSSIBILITY FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  

BANN

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   48919740 48889549 47619535 46819527 46299529
            45559588 46019674 46319714 46669778 47099851
            47739931 48499927


Last Updated: 948 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017