Graphic for MPD #0329

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0329
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
725 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2017

AREAS AFFECTED.......SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTHWEST
IOWA...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 162325Z - 170525Z

SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST TO PRODUCE 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TO ADJACENT
SOUTHWEST IA...NORTHEAST KS...AND NORTHWEST MO THIS EVENING...

DISCUSSION...A BAND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS FORMED NEAR A
SURFACE FRONT AND IS MOVING STEADILY SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA.  THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE LOW-MID LEVEL
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WITH THE LAST COUPLE OF RAP RUNS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO 1.75-2 INCHES IN THE
INFLOW AXIS.

COUPLED UPPER DIVERGENCE AND CONVERGENCE OF THE INFLOW INTO THE
STORMS'S OUTFLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR REGENERATION.

18Z GFS FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS INDICATE MOTIONS NEAR
30 KT.  STEADY TO FAST FORWARD MOTION WILL LIMIT THE EVENT
POTENTIAL.  THE WRF ARW...NMMB...NSSL WRF...AND LAST COUPLE OF
HIGH RES RAPID REFERESH RUNS SHOW 1-3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS POSSIBLE.

GIVEN 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AS LOW AS 1.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS
ACROSS PATCHES OF SOUTHWEST IOWA TO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA...HEAVY
DOWNPOURS COULD LEAD TO AMOUNTS OVER THE GUIDANCE VALUES IN
ISOLATED LOCATIONS. DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOVEMENT THE GRAPHIC AND
DISCUSSION INDICATE POSSIBLE RAINFALL EXCEEDING GUIDANCE VALUES
INSTEAD OF LIKELY.

PETERSEN

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...GID...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   41879607 41559498 41099429 40549365 39689336
            38859463 39029555 40089665 40749733 41059756
            41469748


Last Updated: 725 PM EDT FRI JUN 16 2017