Graphic for MPD #0336

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0336
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
240 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN KS AND FAR NERN OK INTO WRN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 180639Z - 181115Z

SUMMARY...BRIEF TRAINING MAY SUPPORT FLASH FLOODING RAINS FROM
E-CNTRL KS INTO WRN MO THROUGH 11Z. FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE OK/KS
BORDER WILL HAVE THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS.
BOTH AREAS COULD SEE FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...THE SRN EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE LINE HAD WEAKENED BY 05Z
INTO NRN OKLAHOMA AS IT APPROACHED A CAPPING INVERSION BUT STRONG
INDIVIDUAL CORES REMAIN DOTTED ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER
THROUGH 06Z. BASED ON THE 06Z SPC MESOANALYSIS...ROUGHLY 2000-4000
J/KG MUCAPE REMAINS ACROSS SRN KANSAS INTO OKLAHOMA. FARTHER
NORTH...LARGELY DISORGANIZED CELLS HAVE EMERGED OVER CNTRL KANSAS
WITHIN A WEAKENED INSTABILITY RESERVOIR...BUT STILL CONTAINING AN
ESTIMATED 500-1500 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE. THE KANSAS CELLS APPEAR
TO BE DEVELOPING WITHIN AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE JUST AHEAD OF THE
700 MB REFLECTION OF A COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
N-CNTRL KANSAS. IN ADDITION...THE CNTRL KANSAS CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80-90 KT JET STREAK
ANALYZED AT 500 MB IN RAP MODEL AND GOES HD WIND PLOTS OVER SRN
NEBRASKA INTO IOWA. THIS JET STREAK IS FORECAST TO EDGE EAST OVER
TIME WHICH MAY SHIFT THE FOCUS INTO WRN MO BY 11Z.

THE CNTRL KANSAS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PERIODIC EPISODES
OF TRAINING FROM WEST TO EAST JUST AHEAD OF THE 700 MB FRONT AS IT
SINKS SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS...WITH RAINFALL ENDING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. GIVEN WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH RAINFALL THAT FELL
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KANSAS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...FLASH
FLOODING MAY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OVER PORTIONS OF ERN KANSAS.

FARTHER SOUTH NEAR THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER...GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ALONG WITH A LONGER WINDOW FOR
REPEATING/TRAINING STORMS. WHILE THE COVERAGE OF HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE GREAT...THE POSSIBILITY FOR A CELL OR TWO TO TRAIN
MAY CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RATES OF 2+ IN/HR GIVEN THE PRESENCE
OF 1.75+ INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...OUN...SGF...TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39119529 39009367 38899252 38609183 38139180
            37769225 37369383 36729507 36179643 36139815
            37239865 38569839 38949680


Last Updated: 240 AM EDT SUN JUN 18 2017