Graphic for MPD #0351

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0351
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
225 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN LA...SRN MS/AL INTO THE CNTRL FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 210623Z - 211200Z

SUMMARY...AN ADDITIONAL 3-7 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
CNTRL GULF COAST THROUGH 12Z WHICH WILL POSE SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOOD CONCERNS FOR THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...GOES 15 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED DRIER MID-LEVEL
AIR WRAPPING NWD AROUND T.S. CINDY INTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF LA
AS OF 06Z...WHICH WAS CAUSING A LULL IN PRECIPITATION RATES FOR
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA...GENERALLY SOUTH OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.
FARTHER EAST HOWEVER...06Z INFRARED IMAGERY WAS SHOWING CLOUD TOP
ENHANCEMENT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF T.S. CINDY WITH ONE OR TWO
BURSTS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS SOUTH OF SANTA ROSA AND OKALOOSA
COUNTIES IN THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. CLOUD TOP ENHANCEMENT IS
OCCURRING WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND STRONGER
LOW LEVEL WIND SPEEDS...45-55 KT AS MEASURED BY KMOB VAD WIND
PROFILE DATA AND BY USING RAP ANALYSES TO THE SOUTH OVER THE OPEN
GULF.

RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH INTO
SERN LA...WHILE  IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST...THE STRONG LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BAND FOCUSES SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES OF
THE MORNING INTO THE COASTS OF MS/AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING 2.75 INCHES COMBINED WITH
45-55 KTS OF 850 MB FLOW WILL PROVIDE EXTREME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO THE NORTH. THERE IS ALSO A WEST-EAST REGION OF LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SEEN IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS JUST SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR 2-3 IN/HR RATES ON AVERAGE TO
ITS NORTH WITHIN TRAINING CORES OF HEAVY RAIN...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
RATES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RESULT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL 3-7 INCHES OF RAIN FROM SRN MS INTO THE
CNTRL FL PANHANDLE...WITH AN ESTIMATED MAXIMUM FROM FAR SERN MS
INTO THE FAR WRN FL PANHANDLE.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...MOB...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31708820 31518679 31418574 31058497 30378467
            29628504 29458649 29568881 29918981 30909011
            31558916


Last Updated: 225 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2017