Graphic for MPD #0381

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0381
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1220 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL LA...MS...WESTERN/NORTHERN AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 231615Z - 232215Z

SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TRAINING CELLS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH THE FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST WITH TIME.

DISCUSSION...T.D. CINDY CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
WESTERN TN WITH A CIRCULATION THAT CONTINUES TO ELONGATE WITH
TIME. THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MS AND INTO NORTHEAST LA CONTINUES TO BE A
SIGNIFICANT FOCUS FOR CONVECTION...AND THE ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MS HAS BEGUN TO ORGANIZE FURTHER INTO A
SW/NE ORIENTED TRAINING BAND OF CONVECTION WITH EXTREMELY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES.

PWATS OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES ARE IN PLACE AND GIVEN THE RAPIDLY
COOLING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TEMPS...INCLUDING A FEW OVERSHOOTING
TOPS...THE RAINFALL RATES ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 3 INCHES/HR.

THE LATEST HIRES GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE HIGHLY
CONFLUENT ZONE/TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OF CINDY WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE
ONGOING CONVECTIVE BANDING TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS OFF TO THE EAST
WITH IMPACTS ADVANCING ACROSS EASTERN MS AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE AREAS OF SOUTHWEST MS AND BACK INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL LA WHERE THIS CONVERGENCE AXIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
IN PLACE UNTIL LATE-AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. 

THE EXTREMELY HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SOME EPISODIC TRAINING OF
THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FOSTER ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS...AND ESPECIALLY WITH MANY AREAS ALREADY SEEING VERY WET
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS. EXPECT AS MUCH AS 3 TO 6+ INCHES OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LCH...LIX...MEG...MOB...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35038739 34828626 33988620 32588706 31428834
            30688949 30379042 30319147 30539200 30849211
            31439170 32669037 33069005 33708940 34258879
            34788824


Last Updated: 1220 PM EDT FRI JUN 23 2017