Graphic for MPD #0400

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0400
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
641 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA...NORTHEAST FL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 262240Z - 270230Z

SUMMARY...VERY INTENSE RAINFALL RATES FROM SLOW-MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL RUNOFF PROBLEMS
THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES INTERACTING WITH A
SURFACE FRONT AND LOCALIZED SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE
TO FOSTER POCKETS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THE EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR IMAGERY HAS
BEEN SHOWING SOME EXTREMELY COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS INDICATIVE OF
VERY STRONG UPDRAFTS AND ORGANIZED FORCING.

RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN LOCALLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES/HR...AND WITH
THE SLOW-MOVEMENT...SOME STORM TOTALS UP CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WILL BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE HRRR GUIDANCE AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR
TRENDS.

EXPECT THESE TOTALS TO ENHANCE CONCERNS FOR ADDITIONAL URBANIZED
RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND FLOODING. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS SURFACE INSTABILITY IS EXHAUSTED.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   31678181 31388117 30118129 28528064 27908099
            27868144 28208189 28838226 30058265 30878248
           


Last Updated: 641 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2017