Graphic for MPD #0412

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0412
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
727 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 292326Z - 300326Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MISSOURI.  TRAINING CELLS ARE LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING GIVEN WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND
RAINFALL RATES ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS ARE INDICATING
BACK-BUILDING CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE.  PW VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES AS PORTRAYED BY THE RAP
MODEL, ALONG WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2500 JUST SOUTH OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION, WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THIS CONVECTION
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS.

AN AGGRAVATING FACTOR HERE IS THE WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, WITH
PARTS OF NORTHERN MISSOURI RECEIVING OVER 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS, LEADING TO MUCH LOWER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE.  THE LATEST HI RES
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING PATCHY AREAS OF 2+ INCHES OF RAINFALL BY
3Z, AND THIS FALLING OVER SATURATED GROUNDS INCREASES THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...LSX...OAX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40399376 40319221 40179164 39589133 38759121
            38399180 38419293 38429417 38239543 38439628
            38909646 39659614 40139562 40339500


Last Updated: 727 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2017