Graphic for MPD #0414

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0414
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1110 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN MO INTO FAR WEST
CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 300315Z - 300745Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION FORMING AND TRAINING OVER AREAS WITH LOWER
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG A LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHEAST KS ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO
FAR WEST CENTRAL IL AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE ABOUT TO ENTER FAR
NORTHWEST MO. THE CONVECTION IS BEING FED BY 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE (THE 00Z TOP SOUNDING SHOWED CLOSE TO 1800 J/KG OF
SBCAPE)...IN AN AXIS OF 1.75 TO 2.00 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR
PER THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND LATEST BLENDED TPW IMAGES.

THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS BEING INJECTED INTO THE REGION ON
THE NOSE OF A 25 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...AND THE LATEST  EXPERIMENTAL
GOES-16 CLEAN IR IMAGES SHOWED BURSTS OF COLDER CLOUD TOPS ALONG
THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE KEAX RADAR SHOWED
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2.50 INCHES...BUT DRY AIR IN THE MID
LEVELS OF NEARBY 00Z SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS A STRONG INDICATION OF
HAIL ON THE KEAX HCA PRODUCT...SUGGEST THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE HAIL
CONTAMINATED.

PROPAGATION VECTORS ALONG THE AXIS OF BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING
THROUGH ABOUT 05Z...WITH A SLOW SOUTHEAST MOTION TO THE CONVECTION
AS IT BECOMES MORE OUTFLOW DOMINATED AFTER THAT TIME. THE LATEST
HRRR SHOWED LOCAL 2.00 TO 4.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...WITH THE BULLSEYE OVER NORTH CENTRAL MO...WHERE ONE
HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AREA UNDER 0.50 INCHES IN SOME
PLACES.

GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING IN THE SHORT TERM...THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES THROUGH 05Z...THEN STARTS TO BACK
OFF. SINCE FLASH FLOOD VALUES ARE SO LOW... FLASH FLOODING APPEARS
LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MO.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40169112 39848994 39039081 38989491 39239613
            39829589 40039511


Last Updated: 1110 PM EDT THU JUN 29 2017