Graphic for MPD #0426

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0426
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
744 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN VT...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
NH...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ME

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 012342Z - 020245Z

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS AS SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE.

DISCUSSION...A BIT OF SMALL SCALE QLCS CONTINUES TO IMPACT AREAS
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESSIVELY ADVANCE TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF NEW ENGLAND. THE NOSE OF
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE SEGMENTS IS WANING
WITH ABOUT 500 TO 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE NOTED UP ACROSS
CENTRAL/WESTERN MA...SOUTHERN VT AND SOUTHERN NH. FARTHER
NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ME...THE INSTABILITY IS SUBSTANTIALLY
WEAKER OWING TO A COOLER/STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.

OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS...THERE STILL REMAINS AT LEAST SOME
CONCERN FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION TO TRACK OVER AREAS THAT HAVE
SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL RECENTLY. SOME BRIEF REPEATING CELL ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TOO UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EXITS
THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXHAUSTION
OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE
THREAT AREA...BUT UNTIL THEN...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN
LOCALLY WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...BTV...CAR...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   45726899 45576807 45086776 44396838 43976924
            43497027 42847104 42627253 42717325 43017335
            43517298 43837231 44187143 44527096 44917050
            45666963


Last Updated: 744 PM EDT SAT JUL 01 2017