Graphic for MPD #0439

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0439
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
623 PM EDT MON JUL 03 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NC...NORTHERN SC

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 032220Z - 040100Z

SUMMARY...SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY INTENSE RAINFALL
RATES OF 2.5 TO 3.0 INCHES/HR...COUPLED WITH A FEW POSSIBLE
CELL-MERGERS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTIVE TOPS CONTINUING TO COOL ACROSS AREAS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWEST NC...AND EXTENDING DOWN INTO FAR NORTHERN SC BORDER. THE
CONVECTION IS FOCUSING WITHIN AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH
DIURNAL HEATING ALONG WITH A VERY MOIST COLUMN AIDED BY PWATS NEAR
2.0 INCHES. ADDITIONALLY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKLY CONFLUENT
AND THERE IS ALSO PROXIMITY OF A BROAD AND WEAK MCV OVER CENTRAL
SC.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD TEND TO GROW IN COVERAGE A LITTLE BIT MORE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS AVAILABLE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
BE TAPPED. HOWEVER...THE SLOW CELL MOTION GIVEN THE WEAK MEAN
LAYER FLOW...COUPLED WITH A RISK OF A FEW CELL-MERGERS WILL
PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED RAINFALL TOTALS LOCALLY...AIDED
BY RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY APPROACH 3.0 INCHES/HR GIVEN THE DEEPER
MOISTURE PROFILES.

SOME ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP 5 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY URBANIZED AREAS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER ABOUT 00Z TO 01Z AS
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO WANE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...ILM...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35838115 35788011 35607936 35277891 34597871
            34157926 34268023 34508120 35108189 35598174
           


Last Updated: 623 PM EDT MON JUL 03 2017