Graphic for MPD #0447

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0447
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
516 AM EDT THU JUL 06 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN AR...NORTHWEST MS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 060910Z - 061300Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME TRAINING CELLS
MAY CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...AN ELONGATED AXIS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAST COUPLE HOURS OVER AREAS OF SOUTHERN AR
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POOL OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR FOCUSED
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE ACTIVITY IS ALSO BEING
AIDED BY THE TAIL END OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH IS LIFTING
THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...AND PROXIMITY OF SOME WEAK
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS.

THE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY TEND TO SUSTAIN ITSELF OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS GIVEN THE MODEST UPPER JET SUPPORT OVER THE REGION AND
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF UP TO 2.5 INCHES/HR
WITH THE AID OF A RATHER DEEP COLUMN OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WHICH
WILL PROVIDE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES.

HIRES GUIDANCE IS HARDLY EVEN CAPTURING THIS CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...BUT GIVEN THE COOLING CLOUD TOP TRENDS AND SUGGESTION
OF A COUPLE OF OVERSHOOTING TOPS...EXPECT SOME ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION GOING THROUGH DAWN WITH A GENERAL MOTION
OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF NORTHWEST MS TO ALSO
GET INTO THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND ESPECIALLY WITH SOME TRAINING CELL ACTIVITY
WHICH THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS ARE SUPPORTING. SOME FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...MEG...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   34648962 34178914 33579041 33319245 33289333
            33459419 33699451 34139455 34349363 34499222
            34589115


Last Updated: 516 AM EDT THU JUL 06 2017