Graphic for MPD #0477

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0477
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
847 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN CO & WESTERN KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 130045Z - 130500Z

SUMMARY...THE COMBINATION OF CONVECTION MOVING OUT OF CO AND NEW
CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT IN WESTERN KS COULD LEAD TO HOURLY RAIN
RATES UP TO 2.5" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4".

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS CONGEALING ACROSS EASTERN CO TO THE
NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVE AND SOUTH OF A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY WHICH IS
AIDING DIVERGENCE ALOFT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.5"
EXIST HERE PER RAP ANALYSES.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS IS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT 20 KTS.  CIN HAS
REDEVELOPED, AND MU CAPE VALUES NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE ACTIVITY ARE
1000-3000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS HAS LED TO SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH RANDOM MESOCYCLONES SEEN ACROSS CO EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING AND VEERING OF INFLOW WITH TIME IS FORECAST
BY THE RAP, IMPLYING FORWARD PROGRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE ROUGHLY
TO THE EAST NEAR 20 KTS.  RECENT HRRR AND 18Z NAM CONEST RUNS HAVE
SOME IDEA TO THE CONVECTION PATTERN IN THIS REGION, THOUGH THEY
APPEAR TOO FAR NORTH PER RECENT RADAR IMAGERY -- USED THESE AND
RADAR AS A GUIDE FOR EXPECTATIONS.  THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CO AND KS TO MERGE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS WARM 700 HPA TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
SHOULD RESTRICT THE EASTWARD MOTION OF ACTIVITY WITH HIGH RAIN
RATES.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 4" ARE
EXPECTED IN AREAS WHERE CELLS MERGE AND/OR TRAIN.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...BOU...DDC...GID...GLD...ICT...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39920032 39429795 38109941 37690181 37760345
            38470418 39150321


Last Updated: 847 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2017