Graphic for MPD #0483
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0483
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
607 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 131005Z - 131315Z

SUMMARY...A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACROSS AREAS
ALREADY AFFECTED BY FLOODING RAINS.

DISCUSSION...WHILE OVERALL IR TRENDS ARE WARMING...LOW LEVEL JET
CONTINUES TO INTERSECT AND UPGLIDE OVER NEARLY PERPENDICULAR
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.  THIS ASCENT GIVEN WEAK REMAINING INSTABILITY
REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR BROKEN LINES OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH
A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD TRANSLATION AS THE LOW LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY VEER WITH TIME.  THIS BRINGS ADDITIONAL BANDS OF CONVECTION
ACROSS ALREADY SATURATED AREAS WHERE 2-5" HAS ALREADY FALLEN SUCH
AS GENTRY/DAVIESS COUNTIES.  OVERALL AN ADDITIONAL 1-2" IS
POSSIBLE; AND POSSIBLE TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS GOING
OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. 

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...EAX...

ATTN...RFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   40559542 40539461 40199346 39869308 39479325
            39329368 39509414 39979503 40319549


Last Updated: 607 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017