Graphic for MPD #0490

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0490
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
616 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KS & WESTERN MO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 132215Z - 140415Z

SUMMARY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EASTERN KS IS ACTING AS A
FOCUS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION.  HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2.5" WITH LOCAL
AMOUNTS TO 4" ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY IS
ACTING TO AID DIVERGENCE OVER AN AREA OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS KS AT THIS TIME.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2"
EXIST HERE PER RAP ANALYSES AND MID-MORNING GPS DATA.  INFLOW AT
850 HPA IS 10-15 KTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST, NEAR THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN THE REGION IS
CLOSE TO 25 KTS.  WHILE THE INSTABILITY POOL IS INVERTED NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY DUE TO HIGHER DEW POINTS POOLING ON ITS POLEWARD
SIDE, ML CAPE VALUES IN THIS REGION ARE 1000-4000 J/KG.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HAS A DECENT SIGNAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
HERE.  THE 12Z HREF MEAN APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY WELL PLACED NEAR THE
KS/MO BORDER WHILE THE 18Z GFS AND 20Z HRRR APPEAR WELL TOO FAR TO
THE NORTH.  THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO
SOUTHEAST KS AND SOUTHERN MO WITH TIME WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THE
INSTABILITY POOL IN KS AND FAVOR INCREASINGLY FAVOR MO WITH TIME. 
LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RAMP UP NEAR THE END OF
THE PERIOD ACROSS MO WHICH COULD LEAD TO GREATER CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND SOME BACKBUILDING.  OTHERWISE, CELL MOTION TO THE
EAST IS EXPECTED AT 10-15 KTS.  THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SUPPORT HOURLY RAIN RATES TO 2.5" AND LOCAL AMOUNTS TO
4" THROUGH 04Z.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...DDC...EAX...ICT...LSX...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39419388 39189174 38339106 37609177 37509528
            37599820 37579843 37599973 37729959 38209829
            38999679 39379582


Last Updated: 616 PM EDT THU JUL 13 2017