Graphic for MPD #0537

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0537
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
729 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 222328Z - 230328Z

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS AND INTENSE SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL
CONCERNS FOR FLASH FLOODING.  RAINFALL RATES COULD EASILY EXCEED
TWO INCHES PER HOUR AT TIMES.

DISCUSSION...DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY IS INDICATING INCREASING
COVERAGE OF VERY INTENSE CONVECTION WITH SLOW MOVEMENT NEAR A
SURFACE FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING.  IMPRESSIVE
OVERSHOOTING TOPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON THE LATEST INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH 65KFT TOPS FROM RECENT RADAR ECHO TOP
DATA.  WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES
FEEDING INTO THIS BOUNDARY, MLCAPE APPROACHING 5000 J/KG IS
PRESENT OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI FROM THE
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS!  THIS AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
ALSO ELEVATING PWS TO THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE.

THE LATEST HRRR, WRFNSSL, AND NAM CONEST GUIDANCE ARE SUGGESTING
THE POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH THIS CONVECTION
THROUGH 04Z, WITH THE ACTIVITY INCREASING OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
LATER THIS EVENING.  THIS CERTAINLY SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN RECENT
DOPPLER RADAR TRENDS.  THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH THIS EVENING.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...DDC...DVN...EAX...GID...ICT...LSX...OAX...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   40529346 40429221 39719214 39059313 38679423
            38239587 37899784 37919881 38109941 38679979
            39239945 39589822 39869673 40189511


Last Updated: 729 PM EDT SAT JUL 22 2017