Graphic for MPD #0569

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0569
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1024 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEASTERN CO...

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 270224Z - 270654Z

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY CONGREGATING OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD EASTERN CO. THESE CELLS WILL MOVE INTO AN ANOMALOUS POOL OF
MOISTURE AIDED BY SUFFICIENT NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. EXPECT
POCKETS OF FLASH FLOODING WHERE THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS RESIDE.

DISCUSSION...THE 02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG CONVERGENCE
OCCURRING ALONG A BOUNDARY SINKING DOWN INTO THE FAR WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE UP TOWARD FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO. IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AS WELL LOCAL 00Z RAOBS SHOW
SUFFICIENT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE PRESENCE OF FAIRLY HIGH
DEW POINTS. 02Z OBSERVATIONS ACROSS EASTERN CO ARE QUITE
IMPRESSIVE NEARING 65F. FURTHER...BLENDED TPW IMAGERY SHOWS QUITE
A PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN CO TOWARD THE
MO VALLEY. GIVEN PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR SITTING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXPECT
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE COMMONPLACE WITHIN THIS
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.

WHILE HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS VARY IN PLACEMENT ACROSS THE MPD
AREA...THEY ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT IN FAVORING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL THE INSTABILITY POOL IS EXHAUSTED. EVENTUALLY THE CONVECTION
WILL BECOME MORE OUTFLOW DOMINANT DRIVING TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER.


RUBIN-OSTER

ATTN...WFO...BOU...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...

LAT...LON   39390473 39350415 39130294 38500230 37630224
            37110274 37180393 38380479 38640509 38860526
            39080529 39270515


Last Updated: 1024 PM EDT WED JUL 26 2017