Graphic for MPD #0606

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0606
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1058 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL FL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 311455Z - 312055Z

SUMMARY...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA IN CONNECTION WITH
TROPICAL STORM EMILY. LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH 21Z ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE 4-6 INCH RANGE.

DISCUSSION...14Z RADAR IMAGERY FROM KTBW SHOWED THE CENTER OF T.S.
EMILY MOVING ESE TOWARD MANATEE COUNTY FLORIDA WITH 2 OR 3 NEWLY
FORMED SPIRAL BANDS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
EXPERIMENTAL GOES 16 INFRARED IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A SHORT
LIVED/PULSING NATURE TO COLDER CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER OF EMILY
AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM...EVEN AFTER
THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. THERE WAS A RELATIVE BREAK IN RAINFALL
AS ONE MOVES DOWN THE WESTERN PENINSULA UNTIL THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA WHERE A SWATH OF MODERATE WITH LOCALLY EMBEDDED HEAVY
RAIN EXTENDED FROM OFFSHORE THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA...EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST. IN BOTH
LOCATIONS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL...THE HIGHEST OBSERVED RAINFALL
RATES OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS HAVE BEEN IN THE 1-2 IN/HR RANGE.

THE SLOW FORECAST MOVEMENT OF EMILY TOWARD THE EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST
WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SURGES OF HEAVY RAIN NEAR THE CENTER...LOCALLY 3+ IN/HR IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION GIVEN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PEAKING NEAR 2.5
INCHES AT TIMES AND TALL SKINNY CAPES REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT.

FARTHER EAST...SHORT TERM RAP/HRRR FORECASTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AXIS SETTING UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN MLB AND FPR NEAR 18Z...IN THE
VICINITY OF A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AMID A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT/DIVERGENT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
WITHIN THE TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS HEAVIER
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE EAST COAST INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE
RECENT HRRR/HRRR_EXPERIMENTAL RUNS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT 4-6 INCH
TOTALS THROUGH 21Z.

GIVEN THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES AND SWAMPY NATURE TO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ONLY
CONSIDERED POSSIBLE BUT HIGHER CONCERNS WILL EXIST NEAR THE URBAN
CORRIDORS OF I-75...I-95 AND POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS MCO.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

ATTN...RFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   28628068 28378020 27367973 25678006 25238125
            25948231 27548301 28178228


Last Updated: 1058 AM EDT MON JUL 31 2017