Graphic for MPD #0612

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 612
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1206 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ARIZONA...S CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...W TEXAS

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 010405Z - 010905Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION TRAINING OVER AREAS WITH SATURATED GROUND
FROM ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS COULD
RESULT IN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA AND EXTENDING EASTWARD TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF WESTERN TEXAS. A 20 KNOT LOW LEVEL EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW IS TRANSPORTING 1.50 TO 1.75 PWS INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS, AND THE CONVECTION FEEDING ON THE
DEEPENING MOISTURE IS PRODUCING HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.5
INCHES WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS.  ANOTHER PLUME OF MOISTURE
EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO
IN CONNECTION WITH THE MONSOON. MUCAPE IS ON THE ORDER OF 1000 TO
2000 J/KG PER THE LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS OVER MOST OF THIS
REGION.  A COUPLE OF COMPACT VORT MAXES OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
OVERNIGHT WILL HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION, WITH ADDITIONAL ASCENT
PROVIDED BY FAVORABLE 250MB JET PLACEMENT TO THE NORTH. 

THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS DEPICTING AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH 9Z, AND GIVEN
RECENT RADAR TRENDS, THIS IS WHERE THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL LIKELY BE. THE 00Z ARW AND NMMB ARE ALSO ON BOARD WITH
ISOLATED 2 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS.  MOST AREAS IN THE MPD AREA,
HOWEVER, WILL LIKELY GET LESS THAN AN INCH OF RAIN GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION.

HAMRICK

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...PSR...SJT...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35120307 34870164 33880109 31990144 31280174
            30860241 30780390 30860500 31070626 31140859
            31131055 31211140 31721206 32651196 33181128
            33330985 33290816 33290619 34010492 34820427
           


Last Updated: 1206 AM EDT TUE AUG 01 2017