Graphic for MPD #0624

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0624
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
237 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...VICINITY OF SOUTHERN UT & SOUTHERN NV

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 050637Z - 051107Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE STARTED DEVELOPING NEAR
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
INSTABILITY EXHAUSTS.

DISCUSSION...INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM EXPERIMENTAL
GOES-16 IMAGERY ALONG WITH RADAR IMAGERY SHOW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REFORMING NEAR AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR LAS VEGAS
NV, NEAR AN AXIS OF CYCLONIC FLOW/CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTHERN UT
AND SOUTHERN NV AT 700 HPA.  MU CAPE VALUES ARE 500-1000 J/KG PER
SPC MESOANALYSES.  THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY SATURATED IN THIS
REGION PER THE 00Z LAS VEGAS NV SOUNDING, WITH WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS OF 12,600 FEET.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.25-1.5"
EXIST IN THIS AREA.

THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS CONVECTION WITH INCREASING HOURLY RAIN
RATES TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNTIL MU CAPE VALUES SINK BELOW 500
J/KG, WHICH HAS BEEN ADVERTISED AROUND 11Z WITHIN RECENT RAP RUNS.
 UNTIL THIS OCCURS, HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...CNRFC...

LAT...LON   38031338 37591104 36951105 36671342 35401434
            35331548 35891739 36821716 36511578 37671519
           


Last Updated: 237 AM EDT SAT AUG 05 2017