Graphic for MPD #0634

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0634
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
221 AM EDT SUN AUG 06 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO, SOUTHEAST KS, NORTHEAST OK &
VICINITY

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 060621Z - 061221Z

SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FALLING OVER SATURATING
SOILS ACROSS MO, KS, AND OK.  HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 2.5" WITH
LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 5" ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...THE WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AHEAD OF A MESOSCALE WAVE
ACROSS NORTHERN OK AND ITS INVERTED TROUGH ARE ACTING AS THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION, WITH ACTIVITY IN KS/OK CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND MO ACTIVITY ELEVATED, RELATIVELY CLOSE TO
THE 925 HPA SURFACE.  A MESOCYCLONE ON RADAR IMAGERY IS LOCATED
NORTH OF TULSA OK AND MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 KTS.  DIVERGENCE
ALOFT IS BEING AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NE. 
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF ~2" LIE ACROSS THE REGION.  MU CAPE
VALUES ARE 1000-2000 J/KG REGION-WIDE.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS 30-50
KTS PER VAD WIND PROFILES, WHICH IS A BIT ABOVE THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE MEAN 850-400 HPA WIND WHICH IS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE.  THIS
HAS LED TO PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY OVERNIGHT.  EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS IN THE 40-50 KT RANGE.

WHILE THERE HAS BEEN PULSING IN THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK, CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN STEADILY WARMING ACROSS MO,
WHICH HAS CORRESPONDED TO RAINFALL MAGNITUDES BEING ON THE WANE. 
OVERALL, IT APPEARS THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT HAS PEAKED IN MAGNITUDE
IN MO.  HOWEVER, SOILS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS, NORTHEAST
OK, AND WESTERN/CENTRAL MO HAVE BEEN AT LEAST PARTIALLY SATURATED
BY A BROAD AREA OF 3-13" OF RAIN SO FAR PER RADAR ESTIMATES.  THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE THAT APPEARS TO BE PERFORMING BEST AT THE
MOMENT ARE THE 00Z GFS, 03Z HRRR, 00Z WRF NSSL, AND THE 18Z
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR.  THERE IS A GENERAL SIGNAL FOR LOCAL AMOUNTS UP
TO 5", THOUGH CONSIDERING INCREASED FORWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS OK
AND MO AS OF LATE THIS COULD BE HIGH.  HOURLY RAIN RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE UP TO 2.5" CONSIDERING THE AVAILABLE
INFLOW AND INSTABILITY WHERE MESOCYCLONES ARE PRESENT AND WHERE
TRAINING CAN OCCUR.  WITH WINDS VEERING WITH TIME, FORWARD
PROPAGATION COULD INCREASE, WHICH LOWERS THE APPARENT FLASH FLOOD
THREAT TO POSSIBLE.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...
TOP...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...

LAT...LON   39029337 37889168 36348904 36149175 35129337
            35199549 35929691 37349687 37559701 38029726
            38649737 38289565


Last Updated: 221 AM EDT SUN AUG 06 2017