Graphic for MPD #0665

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0665
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1047 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST CO...SOUTHERN KS...WESTERN/CENTRAL
OK...TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 110245Z - 110800Z

SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONSOLIDATE INTO AN ORGANIZED
MCS OVERNIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
LOCALLY...AND SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...VERY COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH STRONG ORGANIZED
FORCING HAS BEEN EXPANDING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST CO AND AND IS NOW
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST KS. A ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH A
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS...WITH MLCAPE VALUE OF UP TO 2500 J/KG
AND A REGION OF FOCUSED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE
OF A DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE JUNCTION POINT OF
THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE DRAPING SOUTH DOWN
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED AND IS BEING AIDED BY OVER 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR.

GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILES AND DEGREE OF INSTABILITY POOLED ALONG
THE FRONT...THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS IT ADVANCES EAST-SOUTHEAST OUT ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
ADDITIONAL IMPACTS ON SOUTHWEST KS AND DOWN ACROSS WESTERN AND
EVENTUALLY CENTRAL OK GOING PAST 06Z. PWATS ALONG THE FRONT HAVE
RISEN TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WHICH WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ENHANCED
RAINFALL RATES THAT MAY EXCEED 2 INCHES/HR...AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN
HOW COLD SOME OF THE CONVECTIVE TOPS HAVE BEEN OF LATE.

EXPECT AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN LOCALLY GIVEN THE INTENSE
RAINFALL RATES AND SOME CONCERNS OVER CELL-MERGERS. THUS SOME
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...DDC...GLD...ICT...LUB...OUN...PUB...
TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...

LAT...LON   38340112 38199995 37779883 36969751 36069677
            35279690 34849749 34549872 34690001 35130166
            35810264 36660310 37550291 38160221


Last Updated: 1047 PM EDT THU AUG 10 2017