Graphic for MPD #0681

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0681...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
835 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN AREAS AFFECTED

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/NERN TX/SWRN AR/NWRN LA

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 131231Z - 131630Z

SUMMARY...AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE ARKLATEX WHICH MAY POSE A FEW ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD
CONCERNS...HOWEVER...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE QUICKLY DIMINISHING.

DISCUSSION...KFWS RADAR INDICATED A MESO-VORTEX OVER RED RIVER
COUNTY IN NERN TX AT 12Z WHICH WAS TRACKING ESE AT AROUND 15 KT.
ENHANCED WLY FLOW OF UP TO 40-50 KT  ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
VORTEX HAS HELPED SUSTAIN LINGERING RADAR ESTIMATED HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES OVER HUNT/HOPKINS COUNTIES NEAR 2 IN/HR FROM THE OVERNIGHT
MCS WHICH IMPACTED OK/TX OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE BAND OF HEAVY
TRAINING RAINFALL WHICH WENT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF I-30 IN NERN TX
HAS BEEN DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...A LINGERING
THREAT FOR TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MESO-VORTEX.

THE 12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED ABOUT 1800 J/KG OF CAPE ALONG WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 2.28 INCHES. WHILE WEAKER TO THE
EAST...THIS RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUSTAIN RAINFALL RATES NEAR 2 IN/HR FOR ANOTHER 1-3 HOURS INTO
PORTIONS OF NERN TX AS THE REMAINING COMPLEX TRACKS ESEWD INTO
SWRN AR/NWRN LA WHILE LIKELY WEAKENING.

OLDER RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE
REMAINING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS TEXAS COMPARED TO NEWER RUNS
WHICH ARE FARTHER NORTH. AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF THE LINGERING MCS WHICH MAY CAUSE A FEW FLASH FLOOD
PROBLEMS...ESPECIALLY IN MORE SENSITIVE REGIONS WHICH HAVE
EXPERIENCED ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL OVER THE PAST WEEK.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33749474 33729462 33439375 32929299 32089297
            31669403 32059570 32739587 33589542 33619528
           


Last Updated: 835 AM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017