Graphic for MPD #0683

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0683
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX INTO NWRN LA/SWRN AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 131916Z - 140115Z

SUMMARY...MAXIMUM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 3-5 INCHES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NERN TX INTO FAR SWRN AR AND NWRN LA THROUGH
01Z. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOME
POSSIBLE OVERLAP WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...GOES VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION OVER E-CNTRL OK AT 19Z WITH RAP ANALYSES AND 850 MB
VAD WIND PLOTS SHOWING A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER FLOW BETWEEN 20-30
KT EXTENDING FROM THE DFW METRO...EWD ALONG I-20 INTO NRN LA AND
CURLING AROUND THE LOW. LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE WITHIN THIS FLOW OVER
NERN TX IS AIDING IN RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF DAL AND
NORTH OF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH RADAR ESTIMATED RAIN
RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. 200 MB FLOW ALSO DEPICTS A SUBTLE BUT
SIGNIFICANT 200 MB JET STREAK ORIENTED FROM NERN TX INTO N-CNTRL
AR...WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AIDING IN UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER NERN TX.

WHILE POCKETS OF CIN REMAIN AMID 1000-2000 J/KG MLCAPE VIA RECENT
DATA FROM THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ARE
ALLOWING FOR SURFACE HEATING AND FURTHER REDUCTIONS IN CIN ACROSS
FAR NERN TX. MEAN STORM MOTIONS HAVE BEEN 10-20 KT TOWARD THE EAST
WHICH IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 850 MB INFLOW WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE
SOME TRAINING AND REPEATING CELL MOTIONS INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN CONTINUED LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE AND
ADDED SUPPORT ALOFT...INCREASING TRENDS IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ARE
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FROM EAST OF THE DFW
METROPLEX TOWARD THE NRN TX/LA BORDER. IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3-5 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THE PROXIMITY
OF THIS REGION TO HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH FELL OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING INTO THE EVENING FROM NEAR THE
DFW METROPLEX INTO THE VICINITY OF THE ARKLATEX.

OTTO

ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   33129574 33069366 32209280 31669296 31559473
            31609636 31889745 32419778 32839770 33019725
           


Last Updated: 318 PM EDT SUN AUG 13 2017