Graphic for MPD #0711

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0711
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NRN AND CNTRL MO...CNTL IL...WRN IN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 220600Z - 221200Z

SUMMARY...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND ALONG CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL BACK-BUILDING/TRAINING CONVECTION...WITH ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL INFLOW CONTINUES OUT
AHEA OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE MID MS/MO VALLEYS. 
LATEST SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PWS OF 2-2.3 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA...WITH THE 04 UTC RAP SHOWING 40-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW MAINTAINING THIS DEEP
MOISTURE POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT.  MUCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS MO/IL SHOULD SUPPORT
CONTINUED CONVECTION...WHILE MID LEVEL ENERGY AND FAVORABLE UPPER
JET DYNAMICS PROVIDE GOOD DYNAMIC SUPPORT ACROSS THE HIGHLIGHTED
AREA.

FOR THE 6-HR PERIOD ENDING 12 UTC...THE LATEST HI-RES
CONSENSUS...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL AND
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SHOW WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1-2
INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER OF 2-4 INCHES.  THESE AMOUNTS WILL
CAUSE RUNOFF CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS ALREADY IMPACTED
BY HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS.

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...DVN...EAX...ICT...ILX...IND...IWX...LOT...LSX...
SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41229010 41038751 40398679 39698965 38409220
            37839370 37789451 37919569 38949575 39919612
            39969336


Last Updated: 206 AM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017