Graphic for MPD #0713

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0713
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
511 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE....PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 222115Z - 230115Z

SUMMARY...CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF OK COULD
TRAINING...POSING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS FORMING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST NM ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO CENTRAL
OK THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONVECTION IS FORMING IN AN AXIS OF
2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE...WHERE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE
BETWEEN 1.50/1.75 INCHES. THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS POOLED
ALONG THE FRONT... WITH THE BEST MOISTURE FLUX OCCURRING ALONG AND
JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT.

THE KAMA RADAR SHOWED ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 2.00 AND
2.50 INCHES OVER DONLEY AND COLLINGSWORTH COUNTIES IN TX RECENTLY.
HOWEVER...RAP SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST THAT DRY AIR IN THE
MID LEVELS... COUPLED WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...IS
SUPPORTIVE OF HAIL. THE HAIL COULD BE CONTAMINATING THE HOURLY
RAINFALL RATES FROM THE KAMA RADAR.

THE ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS BEEN SCATTERED AND UNORGANIZED...AS THE
850-300 MB FLOW IS 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS IS BORNE OUT BY STORM
MOTIONS ON THE KAMA RADAR. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IS EXPECTED
SYNOPTICALLY OVER THE REGION...WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW FOSTERING
CELL MERGERS AND SHORT TERM TRAINING.

THE MOST RECENT HRRR INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL 2.00 TO
4.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL OK. ONE
AND THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE
2.50 INCHES...SO THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD BE LIMITED IN SCOPE.
HOWEVER...CELL MERGERS AND SHORT TERM TRAINING IN THE WEAK MID
LEVEL FLOW DOES POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36049809 35689755 35189758 34789802 34230055
            34000189 34120378 34730385 34740382 34770310
            35260113 35370092 35769944 36019869


Last Updated: 511 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017