Graphic for MPD #0732

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0732...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
853 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 260045Z - 260645Z

SUMMARY...AS THE EYEWALL OF HURRICANE HARVEY APPROACHES THE MIDDLE
TX COAST...THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING INCREASES. SIGNIFICANT
FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR IN URBAN AREAS INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

DISCUSSION...THE GOES-16 CLEAN IR LOOP SHOWED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE HARVEY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE KCRP RADAR SHOWED  THE WESTERN EYEWALL APPROACHING
THE COAST...WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 2.50 AND 3.00
INCHES MOVING TOWARD THE COAST FROM CORPUS CHRISI TO PORT ARNASAS.
THE BAND IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BRINGING WITH IT AN ENHANCED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION IS WRAPPED IN 2.50/2.75 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AIR...WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COAST DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE EYEWALL... RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN
1.50 AND 2.00 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE
MIDDLE TX COAST.

THE MOST RECENT HRRR...WHICH APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON
THE RAINFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY...SHOWED THE POTENTIAL
FOR 6.00+ INCHES OR RAINFALL WHERE THE EYEWALL APPROACHES THE
COAST. THIS MUCH RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH
FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS LIKE CORPUS CHRISTI INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST... LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 3.00 AND 6.00 INCHES OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. EARLIER
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD SET THE STAGE FOR AN ENHANCED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT HERE AS WELL.

HAYES

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   29469629 28989544 28639599 27429728 27439753
            27749757 27969750 28579734 29269690


Last Updated: 853 PM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017