Graphic for MPD #0777

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0777
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
213 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KY...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 010610Z - 011210Z

SUMMARY...THE CENTER OF HARVEY CONTINUES TRACK SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN MS TOWARD WESTERN TN...WITH AREAS TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REMAINING A FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS.

DISCUSSION...AS HARVEY TRACKS SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MS TOWARD WESTERN TN THIS MORNING...40-50 KT LOW LEVEL
WINDS EAST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER CONTINUE TO CHANNEL MARITIME
TROPICAL AIR TO THE NORTH INTO THE TN VALLEY AND THEN BACK TO THE
WEST INTO INTO WESTERN TN AND KY...WITH PWS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES
ACROSS WESTERN AND MIDDLE TN INTO PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN KY. 
THIS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO A REGION OF STRONGER LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.  THIS DYNAMIC SUPPORT ALONG
WITH SUSTAINED STRONG LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL CONSENSUS...INCLUDING RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR...SHOW WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH ACCUMULATIONS...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVIER TOTALS FOR THE 6-HR PERIOD ENDING AT 12 UTC.  THE HEAVIEST
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO CENTER FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KY...WHERE
SOME MODELS SHOW ACCUMULATIONS AS HIGH AS 6 INCHES. 

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   37938458 37308325 36098453 35258529 36208602
            36408655 36388702 36228742 35688830 35968876
            36848841 37658706


Last Updated: 213 AM EDT FRI SEP 01 2017