Graphic for MPD #0842

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0842
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
911 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NEW MEXICO

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 300105Z - 300505Z

SUMMARY...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW MORE HOURS. SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...LATE-AFTERNOON NON-OPERATIONAL GOES-16 DAY-CLOUD
CONVECTION RGB IMAGERY AND 1-MINUTE ENI LIGHTNING DATA SHOWS AN
IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO DROP
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL NM...WITH AN EMPHASIS CURRENTLY ON
VALENCIA...SOCORRO AND TORRANCE COUNTIES. THE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
WHICH HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING REMAINS WELL
ORGANIZED WITH MULTIPLE OVERSHOOTING TOPS STILL SEEN IN VIS/IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

THE CONVECTION REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH AS MUCH AS 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
AND 30 TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WHICH IS BEING AIDED BY
STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW LIFTING GRADUALLY NORTHEAST ACROSS WY.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING CAN BE
ANTICIPATED AS INSTABILITY WANES DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND ALSO WITH THE CONVECTION ENCOUNTERING AN ALREADY MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER EASTERN NM. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HRRR
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCH AMOUNTS...AND SOME
ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE SOME STRONGER
OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND BRIEF BACKBUILDING OF CELLS OCCUR. THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS IN THE AREA OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY ARE ALSO
RELATIVELY WET...AND SO THESE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS MAY RESULT IN
SOME ADDITIONAL RUNOFF CONCERNS AND/OR FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

ATTN...RFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   35320574 35310499 34640448 33540528 32960661
            32880782 33480820 34360738 34810670


Last Updated: 911 PM EDT FRI SEP 29 2017