Graphic for MPD #0846

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0846
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
425 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST/CENTRAL NM

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 302020Z - 010200Z

SUMMARY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OR
PRODUCING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS. SOME RUNOFF AND/OR
FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

DISCUSSION...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE INTERACTING
WITH A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST NM OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL BE ALLOWING FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND ADVANCE
GRADUALLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A FAIR DEGREE OF SHEAR IN PLACE WITH AS
MUCH AS 30 TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND THIS WILL
PROMOTE AT LEAST SUSTAINABLE MULTI-CELL CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. ALREADY SEEING SCATTERED AREAS OF CONVECTION NOW
THAT ARE TENDING TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THE MOISTURE PROFILES ARE GENERALLY NOT THAT
IMPRESSIVE WITH PWATS OF 0.50 TO 0.70 INCHES...BUT THE CLOUD TOPS
ARE CONTINUING TO COOL AND WITH SOME SMALLER SCALE CELL-MERGER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED AND ALSO SOME BRIEF OVERSHOOTING TOPS...THE
RAINFALL RATES WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED TO THE POINT OF SEEING AS
MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES/HR.

THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY WET ACROSS THE
REGION...AND WITH SOME AREAS SEEING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THERE WILL BE
SOME CONCERNS FOR RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND FLASH FLOODING.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...CBRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   37020571 36650476 35460481 34710564 34340668
            34200774 34290851 34700900 35550901 36430846
            36940740


Last Updated: 425 PM EDT SAT SEP 30 2017