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WPC Met Watch

 
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0180
(Issued at 1022 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018 )

MPD Selection
 


Graphic for MPD #0180

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0180
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1022 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018

AREAS AFFECTED...OH

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 220220Z - 220620Z

SUMMARY...HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME BRIEF TRAINING OF
CELLS. SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER
OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AT
LEAST BROKEN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FOCUS
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE
THEN GRADUALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.

THE ACTIVITY IS BEING FACILITATED BY PROXIMITY OF WEAK RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION JET DYNAMICS WHICH IS INTERACTING WITH A NOSE OF
MODEST INSTABILITY POOLED UP ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE
AND A SURFACE WAVE THAT IS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN OH AT THIS TIME.
THE MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS OF GENERALLY
1.5 INCHES...AND GIVEN THE RECENT CLOUD TOP COOLING OVER THE LAST
COUPLE OF HOURS..THE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN QUITE HEAVY AND
LOCALLY APPROACHING 2 INCHES/HR.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION...WITH STORM TOTALS
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AND ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS WHERE SOME
BRIEFING TRAINING OF CELLS OCCUR. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME
ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

GOING PAST 06Z THE ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY TEND TO WEAKEN A BIT
AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN PA...BUT THE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   41308085 40898058 39948120 38958277 38748358
            38808406 39058422 39598402 40238299 40848211
           


Last Updated: 1022 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2018
 

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-May-2015 19:29:02 GMT