Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0026
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
853 PM EST Tue Mar 03 2026

Areas affected...central/southern Illinois into southern Indiana
and far northern Kentucky

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 040153Z - 040753Z

Summary...A prolonged period of moderate to heavy rainfall could
result in a isolated instances of flash flooding through at least
08Z/2a Central.

Discussion...A band of convection was focused along a general axis
extending from near Quincy, IL to near Terra Haute and Columbus,
IN.  The band of convection was collocated with 850mb confluence
along the northern edge of a belt of 25-40 knot flow emanating
from eastern Arkansas.  Weak mid-level waves were noted via
objective analyses across the region, while steep (7-8C/km)
mid-level lapse rates aloft across Missouri were supporting robust
updrafts especially across Illinois.  With flow aloft generally
parallel to the axis of 850mb confluence, training was noted along
the aforementioned convective axis, with individual cells
migrating eastward fairly quickly (around 40 knots or so) while
the overall convective axis hasn't moved over the past couple
hours.  Spots of 1 inch/hr rain rates have developed on occasion
within the band, and 3-hourly totals of 2-2.5 inches have also
been noted.  These rates are close to FFG, though only on a
localized basis.

The overall scenario supporting occasional heavy rainfall should
continue through at least 08Z/2a central - potentially longer. 
Areas of 1-2 inch rainfall totals will continue within the
convective axis, which should only sag slowly southward with time.
 Spots of FFG exceedance (both 1-hr and 3-hr) should occur on an
isolated basis, with flash flood potential expected on occasion
especially near sensitive areas/low spots.

Cook

ATTN...WFO...DVN...ILN...ILX...IND...LMK...LSX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   40579072 40428870 39838598 39098464 38308441
            37718575 38308830 39389057 40129121