Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0084
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
225 PM EDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Areas affected...Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081825Z - 090025Z

SUMMARY...Scattered showers and thunderstorms with a history of
rainfall rates over 2 inches/hour are impacting portions of the
Treasure and Gold Coast of Florida, with increasing concerns for
impacts over sensitive urban areas. Flash flooding is possible
where the cells are the most persistent through the afternoon and
early evening.

DISCUSSION...Persistently moist and relatively unstable low-level
easterly flow continues to focus areas of showers and some
occasional thunderstorms into the Atlantic Coast of Florida. Much
of the activity is aligned with the low-level steering flow and
has been focusing near the offshore Gulf Stream with extensions
westward into areas mainly south of Melbourne and especially areas
just north of Stuart where convection is more concentrated. More
scattered activity is situated farther south down the coast into
the I-95 urban corridor of southeast Florida.

Despite the relatively scattered nature of the coverage, with
southwesterly flow aloft (as opposed to easterly flow in the lower
levels), the extreme directional shear present across Florida is
making an environment favorable for slow-moving and training
storms. Daytime heating is also allowing for instability to
increase, currently ranging from 2,000 J/kg near Miami to near
1,500 J/kg near Melbourne based on SPC Mesoanalysis. Atmospheric
moisture also ranges from 1.7" PWAT near Miami to 1.4" near
Melbourne. Thus, the greatest threat for the heaviest rains are
further south down I-95.

Multiple days of rainfall across all of southern Florida this past
week has sufficiently saturated the soils. Thus, expect much of
any heavy rainfall today to favor increased runoff. Ultimately any
impacts and the magnitudes thereof will be dependent on where any
training cells develop relative to how urban the ground underneath
the cells is. With rates in the strongest cells later this
afternoon expected to potentially reach 3 inches/hour, localized
totals to 6 inches can't be ruled out. This in turn would result
in localized flooding. Regardless, expect that the storms that
will be capable of flash flooding to remain isolated to widely
scattered.

Wegman

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON   28028067 27988037 26947997 25957994 25598022
            25498051 25708057 26008045 26288039 26648033
            26938037 27298050 27528056 27828068