MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0110
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
545 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TX & SOUTHWEST OK 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 230944Z - 231544Z
 
SUMMARY...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE.  WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES UP TO 1.75" EXPECTED, FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ORIGINATED IN EASTERN NM PRIOR TO
05Z HAVE GROWN UPSCALE INTO AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER WITH A MODERATELY
BROAD EAST-WEST PROFILE.  THE STORMS ARE PROPAGATING TO THE EAST
AT ~30 KTS, SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN INDICATED BY THE FORWARD
PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS, IN AN ELEVATED MANNER OVER THE TOP OF
A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE WARM FRONT.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR
THE BOUNDARY ARE ~1.25" PER RECENT GPS INFORMATION, WHILE MUCAPE
VALUES OF 1000-3000 J/KG AND 850 HPA INFLOW OF 40-45 KTS LIE IN
ITS WARM SECTOR.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST INTO A MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
WITH TIME, WITH MINIMAL CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY OR DEGREE OF LOW-LEVEL INFLOW.  THE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CLOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TOWARDS 16Z.  THE 00Z SSEO NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES
ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CLUSTER COULD CONTINUE TO EXIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS, PAST WHEN OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS USUALLY
START TO FADE.  WHILE A MUCH SMALLER CLUSTER OF CONVECTION IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL TX HAS BEEN OCCASIONALLY ROBBING INFLOW INTO THIS
MORE NORTHERN SYSTEM, THE 00Z RUNS OF THE ARW, NMM, SPCWRF, AND
RECENT RAP RUNS HAVE BEEN PRODUCING TOO MUCH QPF DOWN SOUTH AND
SEEM TO BE UNDERPERFORMING WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS MORE
NORTHERN ORGANIZED CLUSTER.  THE REMAINDER OF THE MESOSCALE
GUIDANCE INDICATES LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" REMAIN POSSIBLE, AND THE
MOISTURE IN ITS PATH INDICATES HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 1.75"
REMAIN IN THE CARDS.  OVER SATURATED SOILS, OCCASIONAL CELL
TRAINING AND CELL MERGERS COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   36060231 36000107 35739911 35269831 33999815 
            33489899 33550074 33820244 34020326 34260356 
            34670367 34780352 34860319 35220277