WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0116 (2015) |
(Issued at 753 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
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MPD Selection |
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0116
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
753 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 232345Z - 240300Z
SUMMARY...A FEW CELL-MERGERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. INTENSE RAINFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED...AND SOME LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...LATE DAY 1-MINUTE GOES-14 SRSO VIS IMAGERY SHOWS AN
INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL TX OUT
AHEAD OF A COUPLE OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS ACROSS WEST TX FROM NEAR
KMAF TO KLBB EAST TO KSNK. THE ACTIVITY WHICH IS BEING AIDED BY
STRONG DEEP LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTING ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL MOVE EAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS THAT HAS NOT BEEN WORKED OVER YET.
A FEW INTENSE DISCREET CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE SEGMENTS ARE SEEN
DEVELOPING...AND SO OVER THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF A FEW
CELL-MERGERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES
GENERALLY OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT...THE ACTIVITY HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO ORGANIZE A BIT FURTHER
INTO A SMALL SCALE MCS WITH LOCALLY SOME POTENTIAL FOR
BACK-BUILDING.
RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 TO 3 INCHES LOCALLY THROUGH MID
EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY WHERE CELL-MERGERS OR STRONGER CLUSTERS
OF CONVECTION CAN SET UP OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT.
ORRISON
ATTN...WFO...FWD...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
LAT...LON 34139951 33969794 33759758 33339752 32779808
32529854 32019992 31930076 32060111 32570094
33100126 33470164 33920131 34110035
Last Updated: 753 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015
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