WPC Met Watch |
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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0143 (2017) |
(Issued at 651 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017
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MPD Selection |
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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0143
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
651 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST SC
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 242250Z - 250100Z
SUMMARY...SMALL CLUSTERS OF VERY SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL BE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING. SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE LATE-DAY EXPERIMENTAL GOES-16 VIS IMAGERY SHOWS
AN AXIS OF WELL-DEFINED TCU AND EMBEDDED CB EXPANSION OCCURING
FROM CHARLESTON COUNTY AND BERKELY COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST SC
NORTHWEST THROUGH COLLETON...DORCHESTER AND ORANGEBURG COUNTIES.
THE CONVECTION IS RELATIVELY WARM-TOPPED BUT HAS BEEN ROOTED ALONG
A LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY GRADIENT NOTED JUST ALONG THE NORTH SIDE
OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE CITY OF
CHARLESTON. RELATIVELY ENHANCED/FOCUSED SURFACE CONVERGENCE AROUND
THE NORTH SIDE OF THE VERY SLOW-MOVING LOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP THE
CONVECTION ANCHORED AS THE CONVECTION PRODUCES INTENSE RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL INTENSE RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
GOING THROUGH SUNSET...WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED
THEREAFTER AS THE REMAINING INSTABILITY WEAKENS. RAINFALL RATES OF
UP TO 2 INCHES/HR...AND ADDITIONAL STORM TOTALS PERHAPS REACHING
AS MUCH AS 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
HRRRX GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL...THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.
ORRISON
ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...
ATTN...RFC...SERFC...
LAT...LON 33798000 33577936 33077935 32877967 32948023
32948109 33198138 33558134 33698089
Last Updated: 651 PM EDT MON APR 24 2017
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