MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0242
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1132 PM EDT FRI MAY 19 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...OK

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 200331Z - 200831Z

SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OK...MOVING INTO WESTERN AR OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 03Z CONTINUE TO HAVE A ROBUST LINE OF SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN OK. THIS LINE IS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST WITH TIME. HOWEVER MEAN FLOW GENERALLY PARALLEL
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LINE AND STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
OPPOSING EASTWARD PROPAGATION...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IS
TRAINING OF CONVECTION. THE CONTINUATION OF STRONG SOUTHERLY
INFLOW WILL ALLOW FOR IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO CONTINUE
INTO THE LINE...ALONG WITH THE CONTINUED TRANSPORT OF UNSTABLE AIR
FROM THE SOUTH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGLY
DIFFLUENT AS THE UPPER JET OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN. THUS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THIS
CONVECTIVE LINE TO MAINTAIN AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

HOURLY RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2"+ WILL REMAIN LIKELY WITH THIS LINE AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-5"+ PROBABLE IN
SPOTS. RECENT RADAR AND IR TRENDS SHOW A RECENT EXPANSION IN
CONVECTION NEAR THE RED RIVER. THIS CONVECTION WILL ALSO STREAM
NORTHEAST ALONG THE CONVECTIVE LINE...ENHANCING FLOODING CONCERNS
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OK. OUT OF ALL THE HIGH RES GUIDANCE...THE 22Z
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR SEEMS TO BE DOING OKAY WITH HANDLING THIS
ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING
OVER SOME OF THE MPD AREA...WITH ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
AS WELL. POCKETS OF SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING ARE ALSO EXPECTED.

CHENARD

 

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...

LAT...LON   36309473 36129406 36079346 35849336 35339352
            34929392 34459495 34409507 34169569 33959663
            33819762 33699848 34029848 34629770 34759754
            35209670 35849558