MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0279
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
137 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NRN AR...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN
MS...NRN AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 280536Z - 281136Z

SUMMARY...TRAINING CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...WELL ESTABLISHED COLD POOLS ACCOMPANYING THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ONGOING LINE OF ACTIVITY ARE EXHIBITING
STEADY FORWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS ACROSS THE EASTERN TN
VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION. ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE PORTIONS OF THE
LINE WHERE THE BOWING CONVECTION MAY BRIEFLY ALIGN WEST-EAST TO
ALLOW FOR TRAINING.  FURTHER TO THE WEST HOWEVER...CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR THE OZARK REGION AND TRAIN
EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS AR INTO THE TN VALLEY.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS DEEP WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY INFLOW CONTINUES TO FUNNEL
DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AN WEST-EAST ORIENTED BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE OZARK REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY.  PWS REMAIN 1.75 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE HIGHLIGHTED REGION...WITH THE LATEST RAP
SHOWING A FURTHER INCREASE IN PWS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL AR INTO
WESTERN TN AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.  THIS DEEP
MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH FAVORABLE UPPER JET DYNAMICS ALONG THE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF AN ANTI-CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT DEVELOPING CELLS NEAR THE NORTHERN OK/AR
BORDER.  AS THIS ACTIVITY SINKS SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLY
MERGES WITH THE ACTIVITY EMANATING FROM SOUTHEASTERN OK...EXPECT
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT TO CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL AR INTO THE WESTERN TN VALLEY FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. 

PEREIRA

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LZK...MEG...OHX...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   36429156 35918956 35268642 34448565 34168651
            33948882 33909043 34369275 34329516 34959557
            35889443