MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0288
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
228 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015
 
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
KY...CENTRAL TN 
 
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE 
 
VALID 020627Z - 020945Z
 
SUMMARY...EXPANDING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FOSTER HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS AND CONCERNS FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW CONVECTION EXPANDING
IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN IL...WESTERN KY AND INTO CENTRAL
TN. THE ACTIVITY WHICH IS PREDOMINANTLY ELEVATED IN NATURE IS
BEING AIDED BY SOME UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AS
SUGGESTED BY AREA VAD WIND PROFILER DATA. VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR IS FOCUSED OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MO...NORTHEAST AR AND INTO
WESTERN TN...AND THIS AIRMASS IS BEING ADVECTED NORTHEASTWARD IN A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MID MS VALLEY CURRENTLY.

THE 00Z ARW AND 00Z NMMB SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS WILL BE OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL AND INTO
WESTERN KY WHERE THE BEST CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IS FORECAST.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HERE OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS TO NEAR 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
BE SOMEWHAT MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL TN...BUT THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE EXPANSION. SOME REPEATING CELLS AND
CELL-MERGERS HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF KY AND TN
ALREADY...SO EVEN HERE THERE WILL STILL BE AT LEAST LOCALIZED
AREAS OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE TOTALS.

GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND LOCALLY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS...THE POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FOR FLASH
FLOODING. THIS WILL BE MONITORED OVERNIGHT.

ORRISON

ATTN...WFO...FFC...HUN...JKL...LMK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NCRFC...OHRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   38048803 37688666 37358597 36848502 36218425 
            35538397 35078415 34918460 35068566 35558661 
            36428855 36928932 37568954 37988917