WPC Met Watch |
|
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0289 (2015) |
(Issued at 421 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015
) |
|
MPD Selection |
|
|
|
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0289
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
421 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN MO...NORTHERN AR
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 020818Z - 021200Z
SUMMARY...STRONG CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE GRADUALLY
SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOME ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE.
DISCUSSION...A STRONG COLD-TOPPED MCS OVER SOUTHERN MO CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING AS IT GRADUALLY PUSHES
SOUTH TOWARD NORTHERN AR. THE CORE OF THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION
IS OVER STONE...CHRISTIA AND TANEY COUNTIES...AND RAINFALL RATES
BASED ON DUAL-POL ANALYSIS IS RANGING FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES/HR.
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS LEADING UP TO SUNRISE...THE MCS
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN BUT WILL LIKELY SUSTAIN ENOUGH STRENGTH
GIVEN THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY TO CONTINUE PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS. THE 06Z HRRR SUGGESTS THE SOUTHWEST FLANK OF THE
CONVECTION REMAINING ACTIVE AND SETTLING INTO NORTHERN AR. AFTER
12Z...THE MCS SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND THE HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH. HOWEVER...UNTIL THEN...EXPECT LOCALLY 2 TO
4 INCHES OF RAIN WHERE THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CORES PERSIST.
GIVEN THE INTENSE SHORT-TERM RAINFALL RATES...FLASH FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST LOCALLY.
ORRISON
ATTN...WFO...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...
LAT...LON 37379305 37009185 36749068 36468989 35828983
35339048 35279121 35279214 35519304 36119410
36649431 37199398
Last Updated: 421 AM EDT THU JUL 02 2015
|